Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.     

河流污染类型优控顺序确定方法及其在海河流域的应用

建立河流污染类型优控顺序方法并将其应用于海河流域,结合海河流域主要河流站点水质监测数据和沉积物分析数据,对各水系河流的耗氧污染、富营养化及沉积物重金属污染状况进行整体评估,确定海河流域河流污染优先控制顺序.结果表明,海河流域有36%河长耗氧污染严重,重污染河流主要分布在黑龙港运东水系、子牙河水系和徒骇马颊河水系,重度污染河长比例分别为100%、54%和68%.重度富营养化河流主要分布在子牙河水系、北三河水系(北运河、潮白河、蓟运河)和徒骇马颊河水系,重度污染河长比例分别为50.0%、52.3%和39.7%;沉积物重金属生态风险普遍较低,子牙河水系、滦河水系和漳卫河水系重度污染河长比例分别为26.5%、21.6%和28.0%.海河流域河流中度以上的耗氧污染、富营养化及重金属污染河长分别为8203 km、6927 km和6733 km,由此确定流域河流污染优控顺序应该是首先关注耗氧污染,然后再控制河流富营养化,最后再治理重金属污染.分水系优控顺序研究表明永定河水系、大清河水系、黑龙港运东水系、子牙河水系和徒骇马颊河水系主要面临耗氧污染问题;北三河水系应首先控制富营养化;滦河水系、海河干流和漳卫河水系应关注沉积物重金属污染.     

Dynamic failure assessment of an ammonia storage unit: A case study

Chemical Process Industries usually contain a diverse inventory of hazardous chemicals and complex systems required to perform process operations such as storage, separation, reaction, compression etc. The complex interactions between the equipment make them vulnerable to catastrophic accidents. Risk and failure assessment provide engineers with an intuitive tool for decision making in the operation of such plants. Abnormal events and near-miss situations occur regularly during the operation of a system. Accident Sequence Precursors (ASP) can be used to demonstrate the real-time operating condition of a plant. Dynamic Failure Assessment (DFA) methodology is based on Bayesian statistical methods incorporates ASP data to revise the generic failure probabilities of the systems during its operational lifetime.In this paper, DFA methodology is applied on an ammonia storage unit in a specialized chemical industry. Ammonia is stored in cold storage tanks as liquefied gas at atmospheric pressure. These tanks are susceptible to failures due to various abnormal conditions arising due process failures.Tank failures due to three such abnormal conditions are considered. Variation of the failure probability of the safety systems is demonstrated. The authors use ASP data collected from plant specific sources and safety expert judgement. The failure probabilities of some safety systems concerned show considerable deviation from the generic values. The method helps to locate the components which have undergone more degradation over the period and hence must be paid attention to. In addition, a Bayesian predictive model has been used to predict the number of abnormal events in the next time interval. The user-friendly and intuitive nature of the tool makes it appropriate for application in safety assessment reports in process industries.     

1株耐冷兼性嗜碱好氧反硝化菌的分离鉴定及反硝化特性

以传统微生物富集分离方法,从垃圾渗滤液活性污泥中筛选到1株高效好氧反硝化菌,通过形态观察、生理生化特征及16S rDNA序列分析,对菌株进行了鉴定,同时对其好氧反硝化特性和异养硝化功能进行了研究.结果表明,筛选到的好氧反硝化菌株为假单胞菌属(Pseudomonas sp.),命名为GL19,GenBank登录号为(KC710974).碳源、C/N、pH及温度对菌株反硝化活性影响较大.在柠檬酸钠为碳源、C/N不低于15、pH 6~10、溶解氧(DO)4.8~7.7 mg·L-1及温度为15~34℃,硝酸盐氮负荷为140 mg·L-1的条件下,硝酸盐去除率均达100%,总氮(TN)平均去除率为96.5%,最终无亚硝酸盐积累;菌株能以亚硝酸盐氮、氨氮为底物进行高效脱氮,20 h内可将140 mg·L-1的亚硝酸盐氮完全去除,28 h内可将280 mg·L-1的氨氮降至3.11 mg·L-1,氨氮去除率达98.9%.显示该菌具有耐冷、高效脱氮特性,可实现同步硝化反硝化,这对南方地区冬季废水处理具有潜在应用价值.     

安徽及邻区地震序列类型的判定及其分布特征

根据《大中城市震后趋势快速判定工作方案》制定指南,结合采用八五攻关成果中的一些新方法和历史地震资料,对安徽省及其邻近区域地震震型进行了判定,同时简要分析了其分布特征,以求在震后趋势判断上做些有效的工作。     

Competitive adsorption and mobility sequence of heavy metals in urban soils of southeastern China

Heavy metals can be introduced into urban soils at the same time. Therefore, their selective retention and competitive adsorption by the soils become of major importance in determining their availability and movement throughout the soil. In this study, the availability and mobility of six heavy metals in eight urban soils collected from different cities of Zhejiang Province, southeastern China were assessed using distribution coefficients（Kd） and retardation factor（Rf）. The results showed that there were great differences in the Kd and Rfamong the tested soils. The adsorption sequences were Cr〉Pb〉Cu〉Cd〉Zn〉Ni, and the Kd decreased with increasing levels of metal addition. Ni generally has the lowest Rf values followed closely by Cd, and Zn whereas Cr and Pb reached the highest values. The results suggest that Ni and Zn have the highest mobility associated to the lowest adsorption, Cr and Pb present the opposite behavior. Correlation analysis indicates that soil pH, CaCO3 content, and cation exchange capacity （CEC） are key factors controlling the solubility and mobility of the metals in the urban soils.     

时序逻辑电路分析方法的改进

本文采用次态卡诺图法对时序逻辑电路的功能进行分析,力图改进传统异步时序电路的分析方法,在保证分析结果正确无误的前提下,简化了常规分析方法中繁琐的步骤,更具有实用性。以一个8421BCD码表示的十进制异步减法计数器为例,给出各触发器状态方程的表达式,并用状态表、状态图分析其逻辑功能。     

隧道渗涌水量的随机模型预测

渗涌水问题是常见的隧道病害 ,是影响隧道正常使用 ,危及行车安全的重要因素。因此 ,科学地预测隧道涌水量大小 ,是制定最优防治水方案 ,确保安全通车的关键。笔者以大瑶山隧道渗涌水量的实测数据为基础 ,应用随机过程的理论和方法 ,建立了隧道渗涌水量的平稳序列预测模型 ,并将预测值与实测结果进行了对比 ,比较吻合。     

一种基于混沌和魔方的数字图像置乱算法

在现有数字图像置乱算法的基础上,分别分析了这些算法存在的不足,详细介绍了混沌序列及其优点。在介绍魔方玩法的基础上,指出可以把对魔方的初始置乱理解成加密过程,并分析魔方的加密原理在数字图像置乱中应用的可能性。并设计了一种结合混沌和魔方优点的数字图像置乱算法。该方法将图像的行列和对角线定义成魔方变换的旋转面,将对魔方的旋转定义成旋转面的循环移动。置乱过程先根据密钥产生混沌序列,再由混沌序列控制魔方变换进行图像置乱。通过与其他算法的实验对比,表明该算法有较好的图像置乱效果,达到了对图像进行置乱的目的。分析表明,该算法的时间复杂度较低,安全性较高,满足实际的应用需要。     

二次过街路口行人违反交通法规规律的研究

为了解在不同类型二次过街路口行人违反交通法规闯红灯的违法率,找出二次过街路口不同参数对行人违法率的影响,从而找出降低路口行人违法率的对策,保障路口行人交通安全和人车流畅通,本文选取上海市5种类型的二次过街路口调查行人在路口的违法率.通过分析调查数据,行人在路口一次穿越车道数为2～7,两次穿越车道总数为6～12,违法率随车道数的增加而降低.在红灯等待时间90 s之内,行人违法率随等待时间的升高呈一定的下降趋势.红灯等待时间在90～150 s之间,行人违法率没有确定的规律.安全岛、引导护栏、中继信号灯等设施具有明显降低行人违法率的作用.根据二次过街路口设置安全岛、引导护栏、中继信号灯、车道数以及是否从路边穿越5个影响因素的安全评价系数之和建立综合安全评价系数,得到行人在二次过街路口违法率随综合安全评价系数的增大而降低.研究表明,完善和优化二次过街路口的设施参数可以降低路口行人违法率.